Bush tonight to do very well. After the last debate, with Bush showing so poorly, the pressure is really now on him to convince swing voters that he is not the buffoon they saw last week.
Of course, Kerry has to do well, but he has been doing this now for more than a year. Bush is Bubble Boy. People aren't allowed to disagree with him, and he struggles to discuss his own policies.
The quips from his stump speech won't help Bush tonight.
Bush does not do well under such pressure.