Senate Update

via Marcus:

Alaska

12th Monthly Poll Shows Knowles with Lead

Knowles leads Murkowski by 1.6 points with two weeks remaining.

With fourteen days to go, Knowles leads in the twelfth monthly poll conducted by Ivan Moore Research for Anchorage NBC affiliate KTUU Channel 2, Alaska's largest television station. This poll is the second in five days.

Last Friday, Ivan Moore compiled the data from the last five surveys - June, July, August, September and October - to examine positive-negative and head-to-head numbers. In both surveys, Knowles continues his lead despite Murkowski and her special interest friends spending more than a million dollars in advertising against him! Despite all that negative advertising, Knowles' approval ratings have actually increased!

Knowles continues to lead in this tight election. "Right now it stands with Tony Knowles still in the lead with 46.9 percent, Lisa a little closer at 45.3 percent. A lead of just 1.6 percent -- about as tight as it has been for all 12 surveys." [KTUU-TV, 10/19/04]

Oklahoma

Carson is up by 1 point

Hastert Down On Republican Chances In Illinois, Oklahoma

House Speaker Hastert predicted Tuesday that Republicans would "probably" lose their bid to keep Oklahoma's Senate seat and effectively conceded the GOP would lose its bid for Illinois' open Senate seat, the Arlington Heights Daily Herald reported. During a meeting with the paper's editorial board, Hastert cast doubts on the GOP's effort in Oklahoma, where Democratic Rep. Brad Carson is locked in a tight battle with former GOP Rep. Tom Coburn to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Don Nickles. "We have a race in Oklahoma that we are probably not going to win. That's a Republican seat we are probably going to lose. Same thing in Illinois." Republican nominee Alan Keyes, a former presidential candidate, is facing off against state Sen. Barack Obama for the seat being vacated by Sen. Peter Fitzgerald, R-Ill.

Overall, Hastert said the GOP's worst-case scenario would be if the Senate ends up 50-50. "That makes it more paralyzed than it is now," Hastert said. Keyes, appearing separately before the paper's editorial board Tuesday, disputed Hastert's predictions. Meanwhile, at a meeting with the Elgin Courier News editorial board Tuesday, Hastert said Rep. Philip Crane, R-Ill., who is facing a tough re-election challenge from Democratic consultant Melissa Bean, "hasn't been back to his district probably as much as a younger guy would be." Although Hastert said Crane "will be there in the end," he said, "It's a tough race." Hastert said Crane has helped his district by taking care of jobs and economic and transportation issues. The League of Conservation Voters, which named Crane to its "Dirty Dozen" list Monday, began running TV ads today against the lawmaker in the Chicago market.

Colorado

Salazar at 50 in DSCC Poll, Bests Coors by 7, 50-43

While Coors is Mired in Mid 40’s, Salazar Hits 50 Percent, Has Momentum in Race

Washington – Colorado Attorney General Ken Salazar is at the all important 50 percent mark among definite voters against Pete Coors in a poll being released today by the DSCC. In a poll conducted by the Global Strategy Group between 10/17 and 10/19 Salazar bests Coors 50 to 43 among definite voters and 49-43 among likely voters. The poll among 600 likely voters has a margin or error of +/- 4 percent.

“It could not be clearer that Ken Salazar has the momentum in this race and that the voters of Colorado are responding to his positive vision, his experience and his plans to help secure a prosperous future for every Colorado family,” said DSCC Chairman, U.S. Senator Jon Corzine (D-NJ). “Ken is fighting for better jobs, better healthcare and a safer America and, unlike his opponent, he has the plans, ideas and experience to back up his words, with deeds.”

The Global Strategy Group poll is the third poll in the past 48 hours (Salazar campaign Poll, CNN/USA Today/Gallup) which shows Salazar at or near 50 percent and a lead over Coors outside of the poll’s margin of error.

South Dakota

Daschle is up by 3 points.

Florida

New Poll Show Race Tight. A Quinnipiac University poll of 1208 registered Florida voters, including a sub-sample of 808 likely voters (+/-3.5%), taken 10/15-10/19 shows Mel Martinez (R) and Betty Castor (D) tied at 47% among likely voters and Martinez leading 43%-41% among registered voters.

Kentucky

Bunning Leads By 14. A Survey USA automated poll of 623 likely Kentucky voters taken 10/17-10/19 for WHAS-TV Louisville and WLEX-TV Lexington shows Sen. Jim Bunning (R) leading challenger Dan Mongiardo (D) 53%-39% with 8% undecided or backing someone else.

Washington

Murray Up By Eight. A Strategic Vision poll of 801 likely Washington State voters taken 10/16-10/18 shows Sen. Patty Murray (D) leading challenger Rep. George Nethercutt (R) 49%-41% with 10% undecided.