This has been around for several days so you may have seen it. I think it is good info to use to understand what is going to happen in the next several days.
Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio has just finished a survey of 12 battleground states and finds Bush and Kerry tied with 47% of the vote apiece. But when he weights for minority turnout based on the 2000 exit polls, Kerry is ahead 49.2%-45.7%. And when he further updates the weighting to take into account the most recent census results, Kerry is ahead 49.9%-44.7%.
This is not really news. It was Fabrizio, I believe (but may be wrong) who said in 2002 that if minorities vote in the same proportion in 2004 as 2000, Bush would lose by 3 million votes. With this knowledge, think about a lot of things Bush has done to especially reach out to hispanics, like that harebrained sceme he had to let illegals stay for so many years....so long as they left once they were too old to provide cheap hard labor. They have written off the black vote.
Favrizio: "It is clear that minority turnout is a wildcard in this race and represents a huge upside for Sen. Kerry and a considerable challenge for the President's campaign."
Bottom Line: If Fabrizio's data is accurate, Kerry is ahead by 5% overall in the battleground states and a sure winner on November 2.
Suddenly the Bush campaign's obsession with challenging voters in minority neighborhoods makes a lot of sense, doesn't it? Their own internal polling is probably telling them the same thing that Fabrizio's poll says: unless they somehow manage to keep the minority vote down, they're screwed.
You can open a PDF of the short summary of Fabrizio's report here: PDF Link
(via Kevin at Wash. Monthly)