WSJ / Zogby Poll: Kerry back in Command of Race

WSJ.com

Zogby was the only polling organization to correctly call the last election, and this is good news.

Kerry has a 106 vote margin in the electoral college!

The presidential debate has lifted John Kerry back to where he was in our battleground analysis before the Republican convention energized the Bush campaign.

The latest Zogby Interactive poll puts Mr. Kerry ahead of President Bush in 13 of the 16 closely contested states -- two more states than the Massachusetts senator led before the debate and the most since August. The latest survey was conducted between last Thursday, after the debate ended, and Tuesday afternoon, before vice-presidential contenders Dick Cheney and John Edwards debated.

Mr. Kerry moved ahead in two states (Ohio and Nevada) and increased his lead in seven others -- though Mr. Kerry's margin over Mr. Bush in Ohio, Arkansas and Florida was negligible -- less than one percentage point. Mr. Bush's lead narrowed in the three states (Missouri, Tennessee and West Virginia) that he remains ahead of Mr. Kerry. Overall, seven of Mr. Kerry’s leads are within the margins of error, while all of Mr. Bush’s leads are.

If the results on Election Day matched Zobgy's numbers, Mr. Kerry would win. Here's how:

To analyze Zogby's results, we begin by assuming that the District of Columbia and the 34 states that aren't in the battleground poll will vote for the same political party this November as they did in the 2000 election. Thus, Mr. Bush starts with 189 electoral votes and Mr. Kerry with 172. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win.

To those numbers, we add the electoral votes from the latest poll, regardless of the margins of error or the spread between the candidates. Mr. Kerry's 13 states have 150 electoral votes, while Mr. Bush's three have 27 votes. The bottom line: Mr. Kerry would have 322 electoral votes and the president would have 216.

There are caveats so follow the link for the whole story.

And finally, brace yourselves folks, it's going to get really ugly before November 2. Let's just hope that Kerry and the DNC have learned to more effectively cop with the ugliness.

BTW, it has already started. Today, a "terror warning" has gone out to schools to be on the lookout for Chechen Separatist who might attack our schools. They will stoop very low.

Thanks to Tim A for the tip.