Zogby Poll

DonkeyRising

Zogby Poll: Bush and Kerry Statistically Tied

Bush leads Kerry 46-45 percent of nation-wide LV's, with 8 percent undecided, according to the new Zogby International Poll conducted 10/1-3.

The poll also found that 59 percent of respondents said Kerry won the first presidential debate, compared to 21 percent for Bush.

But here is the good stuff. The talking heads just seem unable to grasp the impact of the following:

As pollster John Zogby noted, 'The post convention bounce for Bush is over and his biggest hurdle is among undecided voters who give him a 31 percent positive job performance rating and a 69 percent negative rating. Only 13 percent of undecided voters feel that the president deserves re-election (his lowest yet) while 37 percent feel it is time for someone new.'

This makes Bush's re-election very difficult. As I have said over and over, incumbent presidents don't pick up undecided voters. If they are undecided at this stage, they don't like the president. Expect at least 2/3 of those to go Kerry.

The other issue that will be interesting is to see how many of those who tell pollsters they support Nader will actually vote for Nader on election day? I suspect he will loose half of those who now support him.

This is good news but we have a real fight on our hands. As I said yesterday, the republican push-back from August was really extraordinary. I'm sure they have lots of tricks up their sleeve and I'm relieved to see Kerry finally responding quickly to their scurilous lies.