Here's a big surprise,...

From this morning's Los Angeles Times,

VIENNA — Although international concern is growing about Iran's nuclear program and its regional ambitions, diplomats here say most U.S. intelligence shared with the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency has proved inaccurate and none has led to significant discoveries inside Iran.
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"Since 2002, pretty much all the intelligence that's come to us [from the U.S.]has proved to be wrong," a senior diplomat at the IAEA said. Another official here described the agency's intelligence stream as "very cold now" because "so little panned out."

UPDATE: Kevin gets it exactly right.