Many argue that Dobson and company are simply making an idle threat in hopes of derailing Rudy in favor of anyone else.
I think the apparent panic of Terry and the forced pregnancy crowd is real.
Steve Benen sums it up well,
These religious right leaders are making bold threats, but they really don’t have any choice. Dobson & Co., not to mention their loyal followers, believe they have enormous influence in Republican circles, and can dictate the party’s direction. If the Republicans nominate a pro-choice, pro-gay, pro-gun control, thrice-married serial adulterer who wants to invest in stem-cell research, the religious right’s masquerade will be over. It will be obvious that the movement is practically powerless in the party, and the groups’ benefactors will have far less reason to keep writing the checks that keeps the movement afloat.The next best thing to an evangelical President is a Clinton presidency. You don't need Jesus if you don't have the devil. A Clinton presidency would keep the money rolling in.
The disaster is a Rudy republican revealing to all the world that the evangelical
"base" is impotent and powerless and never again able to exert influence over the GOP.
Further, the demographics of the GOP ( I think this is what Andrew Sullivan was talking about) are such that it is very hard to imagine how they elect a President without the religious right. This is a reality that our moderate republican friends don't get, but which Karl Rove understands very well.
And it's all very good news for the country and those of us who believe in liberty, reason, science and education.