An Obama strategy memo was inadvertently leaked to a reporter today.
The memo projects Obama with 1,806 delegates to 1,789 for the Clintons following the final primary on June 7, with an ensuing battle to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates. 2025 delegates are needed to clinch the Democratic nomination. I'm assuming from these numbers that this does not include super-delegates.
Of course, only time will tell, and I still believe that over the next several weeks, Obama or the Clintons will pick up the steam necessary to decide the race.
If the memo projection proves accurate however, the party taking steps to deny Obama the nomination will invite disaster.
First, the party cannot seat the MI and FLA delegates to take the nomination away from the candidate who did exactly as instructed by the DNC in both states. The Clintons cannot be rewarded for disobeying the DNC and remaining on the MI ballot while Obama and everyone else honored Dean's wishes. Obama cannot be sanctioned for not campaigning in FLA per DNC rules. Seating the MI and FLA delegates to choose the nominee is an inconceivable outcome and I think a Federal judge would intervene.
Second, and more importantly, if the above occurs or the super-delegates weigh in to take the nomination away from an Obama who won through the primaries and caucuses the most committed delegates, not only will the Dems lose this election but they will have lost an entire generation of new, energized voters just has they have rallied to the party with the promise of Democratic dominance into the foreseeable future. Party suicide.
Third, only fools would join together to screw a candidate who out-raised the Clintons exponentially AND in a single month brought in 170,000!!!!! new donors.
No one, no Republican, no Democrat, not Ronald Reagan, not Bill Clinton has had the ability to bring people and money into a party like Obama is doing.
If Obama is not the nominee it must be because the Clintons had more delegates on June 8.
It's not possible to exaggerate the destruction to the Democratic party if they screw all the new Democratic voters in a back-room deal.