Early black voting surge

Remarkable. People are standing in line for hours to vote early.

Turnout will be the story of this campaign, and I'm starting to believe Obama turnout is going to swamp McCain whose voters are becoming increasingly demoralized.

Nate Silver:

According to Michael McDonald's terrific website, there are three states in which early voting has already exceeded its [early voting] totals from 2004. These are Georgia, where early voting is already at 180 percent of its 2004 total, Louisiana (169 percent), and North Carolina (129 percent).

Hmm ... can anybody think of something that those three states have in common?

And we have a week to go.

There are no pollster models to manage this kind of minority and youth turnout, and so many voters having already voted by election day. One of the interesting aspects on election night will be watching the networks trying to grapple with exit polling data they don't trust.