In my search for a good analysis of Coleman's chances of winning, I came across John McCormack's blog post at the Weekly Standard. I know what your thinking but it's the best I've found so far.
Coleman's bottom line is that he has to convince the court to count previously rejected absentee ballots, and then pick up enough votes to overturn Franken's win. And Franken has some absentee ballots also previously rejected that they want counted. Throughout the state, many absentee ballots were incorrectly rejected for clerical errors while others were appropriately rejected for any number of legitimate reasons. In the recount process county officials identified some they thought were improperly rejected, and ultimately Coleman and Franken agreed on counting almost 800 of those.
As McCormack notes, Coleman's chances are a real long shot.
Meanwhile, former MN Republican Gov Arne Carlson thinks Coleman should concede gracefully for the benefit of the party. "I think there will be a tremendous amount of public anger, I think it will hurt his reputation," Carlson said. "I think he's got to get on with his life. .. At some point you've got to recognize, it is over."