Monday, May 17, 2010

National Congressional Ballot

I tweeted earlier that TPM's Congressional Generic Ballot showed Democrats at +0.6. I was surprised by that number, so I wanted to check Pollster's National Congressional Ballot, and sure enough, Democrats are +.06.

Click on image to enlarge

Of course this is just a snapshot of a point in time, but it's nevertheless pretty surprising and very much contrary to the media meme which is just a regurgitation of the GOP talking point of a GOP landslide in November. This doesn't mean Democrats are going to pick-up seats in the midterms, but assuming the trend holds (and there is every reason to believe it will) it does suggest Republicans will fall far short of their goal of retaking the House or even matching Democrats pickups in Reagan's first midterm when Republicans lost 26 seats.

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