Saturday, September 15, 2012

The problem with Rasmussen

Andrew Sullivan, like The Ward Report, does not include Rasmussen polling in his polling snapshots.  Today Andrew looked back at the last week to show graphically why he doesn't include them.

Andrew: "I'm not saying they rig anything. Or that they did not have a good record in the last election cycle,..."

But Rasmussen DID NOT have a good record last election cycle. In fact, as Nate Silver explained in 2010, Rasmussen had the worst record of the major polling outfits during that cycle.

On Tuesday, polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports — which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News — badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates. Other polling firms, like SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac University, produced more reliable results in Senate and gubernatorial races. A firm that conducts surveys by Internet, YouGov, also performed relatively well.

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