Thursday, November 01, 2012

Nate Silver against the World

or at least the pundit glass.

Nate has grown tired of pundits who don't understand the math and probabilities and who, Nate believes, continue to mischaracterize the state of the Presidential race.  Nate took particular exception to Joe Scarborough who was taking aim at Nate when he said, "Anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue ... they're jokes."

Dashiell Bennett from The Atlantic Wire,
Silver has spent the week firing back, criticizing political pundits for not understanding how odds and probability work and aggressively defending his method against critics. As the week has progressed, his model has only shown Obama's chances of winning increasing, which has not coincidentally increased Silver's confidence in the outcome. (As of this morning, Five Thirty Eight gives Obama a 79 percent chance of winning, with a final Electoral College total over 300.)
It's important to remember a couple things. There is an entire industry that lives on claiming this race is a toss up, and they aren't going to let any mathematical model put them out of business. The tight polls give them plenty to talk about.

Joe Scarborough is a partisan. That's not a criticism, that is a fact. I like Joe and often watch Morning Joe, but he's a Republican too his core and he's going to push the 'Romney can win this' meme until the votes are counted.

As for me?  My money is on Nate. 

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