Wednesday, November 07, 2012

The vindication of Don Ward: Demographics don't work for the GOP

I have suffered mightily my friends, mostly for things I've gotten completely wrong.  But on this score, I was a God damn visionary. 

I've been saying for more than 10 years that the GOP we all know is not long for this world.  The changing demographics of America don't work for the Republican party as it currently exists.  I've had Republican friends literally laugh out loud at me when I would try to explain to them that the white America they embrace is quickly changing.

First Read this morning,
What happened last night was a demographic time bomb that had been ticking and that blew up in GOP faces. As the Obama campaign had assumed more than a year ago, the white portion of the electorate dropped to 72%, and the president won just 39% of that vote. But he carried a whopping 93% of black voters (representing 13% of the electorate), 71% of Latinos (representing 10%), and also 73% of Asians (3%). What’s more, despite all the predictions that youth turnout would be down, voters 18-29 made up 19% of last night’s voting population -- up from 18% four years ago -- and President Obama took 60% from that group.

Obama’s demographic edge creates this dilemma for the Republican Party: It can no longer rely on white voters to win national elections anymore, especially in presidential cycles. Indeed, according to the exit poll, 89% of all votes Mitt Romney won last night came from whites (compared with 56% for Obama). So the Republicans are maximizing their share with white voters; they just aren’t getting the rest. And come 2016, the white portion of the electorate will probably drop another couple of points to 70%.
Politico's Jonathan Martin cuts to the chase,
Battling a wheezing economy and a deeply motivated opposition, Obama still managed to retain much of his 2008 map because of the GOP’s deficiencies with the voters who are changing the political face of once conservative-leaning Virginia, Florida, Colorado and Nevada. Republicans face a crisis: the country is growing less white and their coalition has become more white in recent years. In 2004, George W. Bush won [about 40 percent] of Hispanics. Four years later, John McCain, the author of an immigration reform bill, took 31 percent of Hispanics. And this year, Romney captured only 27 percent of Hispanics.
And barring a seismic shift in the Republican Party, it's only going to get worse.  50,000 Latinos turn 18 every month!

10 years from now Florida will be behind the Blue Wall and Texas and Arizona will be swing states.

But I do believe the Republican Party will change.  After all, their hateful white man base is dying at an alarming rate 

1 comment:

B.Wacker said...

Nice "Victory Lap" post, Don.