Thursday, August 18, 2016

There aren't enough non-college White men to elect a Republican president.

The cable channels need to drive ratings and so they like to cover the presidential election like a horse race.  What they seldom (any of them) talk about is America's demographics that will actually decide this election.  This is why Bob Dole, John McCain, Mitt Romney lost their elections and why GW Bush lost the popular vote to Al Gore.  These demographics get worse every election cycle for the GOP.  

I have had countless arguments with low information friends who simply do not understand the demographic math and have won several bets over the years.  These friends don't understand because they're attention to the election is superficial and driven by the horse race media coverage.   I just pay closer attention and have for 30 years.

The NY Times today takes a look at this issue to see how Donald Trump could win the election, and what they found out was pretty simple: There isn't enough white non-college educated men to elect a Republican president.

William H. Frey, a demographics expert with the Brookings Institution, a nonpartisan think tank, conducted several simulations that tried to determine how much the turnout among white men without college educations would have to increase for Mr. Trump to win. He used the most recent ABC News/Washington Post poll of registered voters that had Mrs. Clinton beating Mr. Trump in a nationwide two-way race, 50 percent to 42 percent. It was among the better polls for Mr. Trump lately.
Mr. Frey tested different turnout assumptions, including improbably optimistic ones, like if 99 percent of white, non-college-educated men turned out to vote. None of the chain of events produced a Trump victory.
In fact, even if virtually all of the white, non-college-educated men eligible to vote did so, Mr. Frey found, Mrs. Clinton would still win the popular vote by 1.1 million.
And Mr. Frey said he did not account for the expected growth in Hispanic turnout. “Once you build that in,” he said, “it’s even worse for Trump.”

Post election update: Turns out there are.

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